Section B
Directions: In this section, you are going to read a passage with ten
statements attached to it. Each statement contains information given in one of
the paragraphs. Identify the paragraph from which the information is derived.
You may choose a paragraph more than once. Each paragraph is marked with a
letter. Answer the questions by marking the corresponding letter on Answer Sheet
2.
The Price of Oil and the Price of Carbon
[A]“The human influence on the climate system is clear and is evident from
the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive
radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the climate
system.”Fossil fuel prices are likely to stay “low for long.” Notwithstanding
important recent progress in developing renewable fuel sources, low fossil fuel
prices could discourage further innovation in and adoption of cleaner energy
technologies. The result would be higher emissions of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases.
[B] Policymakers should not allow low energy prices to derail the clean
energy transition. Action to restore appropriate price incentives, notably
through corrective carbon pricing, is urgently needed to lower the risk of
irreversible and potentially devastating effects of climate change. That
approach also offers fiscal benefits.
[C] Oil prices have dropped by over 60 percent since June 2014 (see Chart 1).
A commonly held view in the oil industry is that “the best cure for low oil
prices is low oil prices.” The reasoning behind this adage is that low oil
prices discourage investment in new production capacity, eventually shifting the
oil supply curve backward and bringing prices back up as existing oil
fields—which can be tapped at relatively low marginal cost— are depleted. In
fact, in line with past experience, capital expenditure in the oil sector has
dropped sharply in many producing countries, including the United States. The
dynamic adjustment to low oil prices may, however, be different this time
around.
[D] Oil prices are expected to remain lower for longer. The advent of shale
oil production has added about 4.2 million barrels per day to the crude oil
market, contributing to a global over-supply. In addition, other factors are
putting downward pressure on oil prices: change in the strategic behavior of the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the projected increase in Iranian
exports, the scaling down of global demand (especially from emerging markets),
the secular drop in petroleum consumption in the United States, and some
displacement of oil by substitutes. These likely persistent forces, like the
growth of shale, point to a “low for long” scenario, even after the supply
legacy left by the high-price era of the 2000s has dissipated. Futures markets,
which show only a modest recovery of prices to around $60 a barrel by 2019,
support this view.
[E] Natural gas and coal—also fossil fuels—have similarly seen price declines
that look to be long-lived. Coal and natural gas are mainly inputs to
electricity generation, whereas oil is used mostly to power transportation, yet
the prices of all these energy sources are linked, including through oil-indexed
contract prices. The North American shale gas boom has resulted in record low
prices there. The recent discovery of the giant Zohr gas field off the Egyptian
coast will eventually have repercussions on pricing in the Mediterranean region
and Europe, and there is significant development potential in many other
locales, notably Argentina. Coal prices also are low, owing to oversupply and
the scaling down of demand, especially from China, which burns half of the
world’s coal.
[F] Technological innovations have unleashed the power of renewables such as
wind, hydro, solar, and geothermal. Even Africa and the Middle East, home to
economies that are heavily dependent on fossil fuel exports have enormous
potential to develop renewables. For example, the United Arab Emirates has
endorsed an ambitious target to draw 24 percent of its primary energy
consumption from renewable sources by 2021.
[G] Progress in the development of renewables could be fragile, however, if
fossil fuel prices remain low for long. Renewables account for only a small
share of global primary energy consumption, which is still dominated by fossil
fuels—30 percent each for coal and oil, 25 percent for natural gas (see Table).
But renewable energy will have to displace fossil fuels to a much greater extent
in the future to avoid unacceptable climate risks.
[H] Unfortunately, the current low prices for oil, gas, and coal may provide
scant incentive for research to find even cheaper substitutes for those fuels.
There is strong evidence that both innovation and adoption of cleaner technology
are strongly encouraged by higher fossil fuel prices. The same is true for new
technologies for mitigating fossil fuel emissions.
[I]The current low fossil-fuel price environment will thus certainly delay
the energy transition. That transition—from fossil fuel to clean energy
sources—is not the first one. Earlier transitions were those from wood/biomass
to coal in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, and from coal to petroleum
in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. One important lesson is that these
transitions take a long time to complete. But this time we cannot wait.We owe to
electric lighting the fact that there are still whales in the sea. Unless
renewables become cheap enough that substantial carbon deposits are left
underground for a very long time, if not forever, the planet will likely be
exposed to potentially catastrophic climate risks.
[J] Some climate impacts may already be discernible. For example, the United
Nations Children's Fund estimates that some 11 million children in eastern and
southern Africa face hunger, disease, and water shortages as a result of the
strongest El Niño weather phenomenon in decades. Many scientists believe that El
Niño events, caused by warming in the Pacific, are becoming more intense as a
result of climate change.
[K] Nations from around the world have gathered in Paris for the United
Nations Climate Change Conference, COP-21, with the goal of a universal and
potentially legally binding agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We
need very broad participation to address fully the global “tragedy of the
commons” that results when countries fail to take into account the negative
impact of their carbon emissions on the rest of the world. Moreover, free riding
by non-participants, if sufficiently widespread, can undermine the political
will to action of participating countries.
[L] The nations participating at COP-21 are focusing on quantitative
emissions-reduction commitments (the Intended Nationally Determined
Contribution, or INDCs). Economic reasoning shows that the least expensive way
for each country to implement its INDC is to put a price on carbon emissions.
The reason is that when carbon is priced, those emissions reductions that are
least costly to implement will happen first. The IMFcalculates that countries
can generate substantial fiscal revenues—revenues that would allow lower
distorting taxes and new investments in the economy—by eliminating fossil fuel
subsidies and levying carbon charges that capture the domestic damages caused by
emissions. A tax on upstream carbon sources is one easy way to put a price on
carbon emissions, although some countries may wish to use other methods, such as
emissions trading schemes. In order to maximize global welfare, every country’s
carbon pricing should reflect not only the purely domestic damages from
emissions (for example, health effects of the particulates associated with
burning coal), but also the damages to foreign countries.
[M] Setting the right carbon price will therefore efficiently align the costs
paid by carbon users with the true social opportunity cost of using carbon. By
raising relative demand for clean energy sources, a carbon price would also help
to align the market return to clean-energy innovation with its social return,
spurring the refinement of existing technologies and the development of new
ones. And it would raise the demand for mitigation technologies such as carbon
capture and storage, spurring their further development. If not corrected by the
appropriate carbon price, low fossil fuel prices are not accurately signaling to
markets the true social profitability of clean energy. While alternative
estimates of the damages from carbon emissions differ, and it is especially hard
to reckon the likely costs of possible catastrophic climate events, most
estimates suggest substantial negative effects.
[N] Direct subsidies to R&D have been adopted by some governments but are
a poor substitute for a carbon price: they do only part of the job, leaving in
place market incentives to over-use fossil fuels and thereby add to the stock of
atmospheric greenhouse gases without regard to the collateral costs.
[O] The hope is that the success of the Paris conference opens the door to
future international agreement on carbon prices. Agreement on an international
carbon-price floor would be a good starting point in that process. Failure to
address comprehensively the problem of greenhouse gas emissions, however,
exposes all generations, present and future, to incalculable risks.
(1).A number of factors are driving down the global oil prices not
just for now but in the foreseeable future.
(2).Pricing carbon proves the most economical way to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.
(3).It is estimated that extreme weather conditions have endangered
the lives of millions of African children.
(4).The prices of coal are low as a result of over-supply and
decreasing demand.
(5).Higher fossil fuel prices prove to be conducive to innovation and
application of cleaner technology.
(6).If fossil fuel prices remain low for a long time, it may lead to
higher emissions of greenhouse gases.
(7).Fossil fuels remain the major source of primary energy
consumption in today’s world.
(8).Even major fossil exporting countries have great potential to
develop renewable energies.
(9).Greenhouse gas emissions, if not properly dealt with, will pose
endless risks for mankind.
(10).It is urgent for governments to increase the cost of using
fossil fuels to an appropriate level to lessen the catastrophic effects of
climate change.
答案：36-40：D L J E H
41-45：A G F O B
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